World petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing will outweigh consumption by 2.83 million barrels per day in 2026.
That’s in accordance with the U.S. Vitality Info Administration’s (EIA) January brief time period vitality outlook (STEO), which projected that world petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing and consumption will common 107.65 million barrels per day and 104.82 million barrels per day, respectively, this 12 months.
A quarterly breakdown included within the EIA’s newest STEO projected that manufacturing will common 106.93 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2026, 107.52 million barrels per day within the second quarter, and 107.92 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 108.24 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter.
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One other quarterly breakdown within the EIA’s January STEO forecast that consumption will are available in at 103.36 million barrels per day within the first quarter of this 12 months, 104.86 million barrels per day within the second quarter, and 105.66 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 105.38 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter.
The EIA’s newest STEO confirmed that world petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing outweighed consumption by 2.59 million barrels per day in 2025.
On this STEO, the EIA highlighted that output averaged 103.67 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2025, 105.21 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 107.88 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 108.30 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter. The STEO confirmed that consumption got here in at 101.96 million barrels per day within the first quarter of final 12 months, 103.68 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 104.55 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 104.52 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter.
Looking forward to 2027 in its January STEO, the EIA projected that the glut will slim to 2.09 million barrels per day.
On this STEO, the EIA forecast that world petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing and consumption will common 108.18 million barrels per day and 106.09 million barrels per day, respectively, subsequent 12 months.
“Though oil manufacturing continues to develop over the subsequent two years, falling oil costs sluggish the speed of progress in contrast with 2025,” the EIA stated in its newest STEO.
“International liquid fuels manufacturing elevated by an estimated 2.9 million barrels per day in 2025, and we count on it should develop by a mean of 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026 and 0.5 million barrels per day in 2027,” it added.
“International liquid fuels manufacturing progress in 2026 is pushed by progress from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ manufacturing, primarily from international locations in South America,” it continued.
“International liquid fuels manufacturing progress comes nearly completely from non-OPEC+ international locations in 2027 as OPEC+ targets are assumed to stay at 2026 ranges and the group’s manufacturing ranges are largely unchanged,” the EIA went on to state.
The EIA highlighted in its STEO that world liquid fuels consumption “elevated by an estimated 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025” and identified that it’s “forecast to extend by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2026 and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2027”.
“Consumption progress rises subsequent 12 months as world financial exercise picks up tempo. Primarily based on forecasts from Oxford Economics, our forecast assumes world GDP will develop by 3.1 p.c this 12 months and three.3 p.c in 2027,” the EIA famous in its January STEO.
“We forecast liquids fuels consumption will develop by 1.1 million barrels per day in non-OECD international locations in 2026 and one other 1.2 million barrels per day in 2027, making up practically all of world liquid fuels consumption progress,” it stated.
“Most non-OECD progress is concentrated in Asia. We count on liquid fuels consumption in India will enhance by nearly 0.3 million barrels per day in each 2026 and 2027. We forecast whole liquid fuels consumption in China will increase by simply over 0.2 million barrels per day in each 2026 and in 2027,” it added.
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