Round 30 % of world oil reserves is likely to be consolidated underneath U.S. affect.
That’s what J.P. Morgan analysts, together with the corporate’s head of world commodities technique Natasha Kaneva, said in a J.P. Morgan analysis word despatched to Rigzone by Kaneva this week.
“Mixed oil reserves from Venezuela, Guyana, and the U.S. might give the U.S. about 30 % of world oil reserves if consolidated underneath its affect,” the analysts mentioned within the word.
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The J.P. Morgan analysts highlighted within the analysis word that Venezuela holds the world’s largest oil reserves, “significantly heavy crude wanted by U.S. refiners”.
“With 303 billion barrels of confirmed crude oil reserves, Venezuela represents practically 20 % of world reserves as of 2024 – greater than every other nation,” they identified.
“If Guyana’s quickly increasing discoveries are thought of alongside U.S. standard and unconventional reserves, the mixed whole might place the U.S. as a number one holder of world oil reserves, probably accounting for about 30 % of the world’s whole if these figures are consolidated underneath U.S. affect,” they added.
The analysts said within the word that this might mark a notable shift in world power dynamics.
“With higher entry to and affect over a considerable portion of world reserves, the U.S. might probably exert extra management over oil market developments, serving to to stabilize costs and maintain them inside traditionally decrease ranges,” the analysts mentioned.
“This elevated leverage wouldn’t solely improve U.S. power safety however might additionally reshape the steadiness of energy in worldwide power markets,” they added.
Within the word, the J.P. Morgan analysts revealed that they proceed to take care of their view that “a regime change in Venezuela would instantly signify one of many largest upside dangers to the worldwide oil provide outlook for 2026-2027 and past”.
“With a political transition, Venezuela might elevate oil manufacturing to 1.3-1.4 million barrels per day inside two years and probably attain 2.5 million barrels per day over the subsequent decade, up from about 0.8 million barrels per day at present,” they analysts mentioned within the analysis word.
Rigzone has contacted the Venezuelan embassy within the UK, the White Home, Guyana’s Ministry of International Affairs and Worldwide Cooperation, and the American Petroleum Institute (API) for touch upon the J.P. Morgan analysis word. On the time of writing, not one of the above have responded to Rigzone.
A web page on Venezuela on the U.S. Vitality Data Administration’s (EIA) web site, which was final up to date in February 2024, said that the nation had the world’s largest confirmed crude oil reserves in 2023, “with roughly 303 billion barrels”. The web page famous that this accounted for roughly 17 % of world reserves.
“Regardless of the sizeable reserves, Venezuela produced 0.8 % of whole world crude oil in 2023,” the EIA web page highlighted.
In keeping with the Vitality Institute’s (EI) newest statistical overview of world power, which was launched again in June 2025, the U.S. was the world’s largest producer of crude oil and condensate in 2024, with 13.194 million barrels per day. This marked 15.9 % of world crude oil and condensate output that yr, the overview confirmed.
Venezuela produced 914,000 barrels per day of crude oil and condensate in 2024, or 1.1 % of the world’s share, and Guyana produced 616,000 barrels per day, or 0.7 % of the world’s share, the EI overview highlighted.
In a information convention held on January 3 in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, which was streamed by Sky Information, U.S. President Donald Trump said, “late final night time and early right now, at my course, america Armed Forces performed a unprecedented army operation within the capital of Venezuela”.
To contact the writer, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
