In an oil and fuel report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie workforce late Monday, Macquarie strategists, together with Walt Chancellor, revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will probably be up 3.3 million barrels for the week ending November 28.
“This follows a 2.8 million barrel construct within the prior week, with the crude steadiness realizing tight relative to our expectations,” the strategists mentioned within the report.
“For this week’s steadiness, from refineries, we mannequin one other improve in crude runs (+0.3 million barrels per day),” they added.
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“Amongst internet imports, we mannequin a small improve, with exports (+0.2 million barrels per day) and imports (+0.3 million barrels per day) larger on a nominal foundation,” they continued.
The strategists warned within the report that timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility on this week’s crude steadiness.
“From implied home provide (prod.+adj.+transfers), we search for a rise (+0.3 million barrels per day) on a nominal foundation this week,” the strategists went on to notice within the report.
“Rounding out the image, we anticipate a smaller improve (+0.3 million barrels) in SPR [U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve] shares this week,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists additionally famous within the report that, “amongst merchandise”, they “search for throughout the board builds (gasoline/distillate/ jet +2.7/+2.6/+1.0 million barrels)”.
“Amidst vacation/seasonal/different results we see potential for volatility in these figures this week. We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~13.7 million barrels per day for the week ending November 28,” they added.
In its newest weekly petroleum standing report on the time of writing, the U.S. Power Data Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. business crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, elevated by 2.8 million barrels from the week ending November 14 to the week ending November 21.
That report, which was launched on November 26 and included knowledge for the week ending November 21, confirmed that crude oil shares, not together with the SPR, stood at 426.9 million barrels on November 21, 424.2 million barrels on November 14, and 428.4 million barrels on November 22, 2024. The EIA report highlighted that knowledge might not add as much as totals as a result of unbiased rounding.
Crude oil within the SPR stood at 411.4 million barrels on November 21, 410.9 million barrels on November 14, and 390.4 million barrels on November 22, 2024, this EIA report revealed. Whole petroleum shares – together with crude oil, whole motor gasoline, gas ethanol, kerosene kind jet gas, distillate gas oil, residual gas oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.682 billion barrels on November 21, the report confirmed. Whole petroleum shares have been up 2.1 million barrels week on week and up 49.8 million barrels yr on yr, the report identified.
In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report despatched to Rigzone on November 27, which targeted on the EIA’s newest weekly petroleum standing report on the time of writing, Ole R. Hvalbye, a commodities analyst on the firm, said that “general, the … knowledge factors towards a well-supplied market”.
“Larger refinery runs, rising imports, and broad product builds are slowly pushing inventories larger. The underlying pattern stays certainly one of a market leaning into surplus as we strategy year-end,” he famous.
In a market remark despatched to Rigzone on November 27, Maria Agustina Patti, Monetary Markets Strategist Guide to Exness, mentioned the November 26 knowledge from the EIA “confirmed a shock stock construct of two.77 million barrels, defying consensus expectations for a draw”.
In an oil and fuel report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie workforce on November 24, Macquarie strategists, together with Walt Chancellor, revealed that they have been forecasting that U.S. crude inventories can be up by 4.9 million barrels for the week ending November 21.
The EIA’s subsequent weekly petroleum standing report is scheduled to be launched on December 3. It is going to embody knowledge for the week ending November 28.
To contact the creator, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
