In a report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie workforce late Monday, Macquarie strategists, together with Walt Chancellor, revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will probably be down by 2.5 million barrels for the week ending October 17.
“This follows a 3.5 million barrel construct within the prior week, with the crude stability realizing modestly tighter than our expectations,” the strategists mentioned within the report.
“For this week’s stability, from refineries, we mannequin a rise in crude runs (+0.3 million barrels per day) following a surprisingly weak print final week; turnaround timing represents a supply of significant potential variability on this week’s stats,” they added.
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“Amongst internet imports, we mannequin a reasonable discount, with exports greater (+0.6 million barrels per day) and imports up barely (+0.1 million barrels per day) on a nominal foundation,” they continued.
The strategists additionally warned within the report that the timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility on this week’s crude stability.
“From implied home provide (prod.+adj.+transfers), we search for a slight lower (-0.1 million barrels per day) on a nominal foundation this week,” the strategists went on to notice.
“Rounding out the image, we anticipate a barely bigger enhance (+0.9 million barrels) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] shares this week,” they added.
The strategists acknowledged within the report that, “amongst merchandise”, they “search for attracts in gasoline (-4.0 million barrels) and distillate (-1.2 million barrels), with a construct in jet (+0.5 million barrels)”.
“We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~14.4 million barrels per day for the week ending October 17,” the strategists added.
In its newest weekly petroleum standing report on the time of writing, which was launched on October 16 and included knowledge for the week ending October 10, the U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. industrial crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, elevated by 3.5 million barrels from the week ending October 3 to the week ending October 10.
The EIA report confirmed that crude oil shares, not together with the SPR, stood at 423.8 million barrels on October 10, 420.3 million barrels on October 3, and 420.6 million barrels on October 11, 2024. Crude oil within the SPR stood at 407.7 million barrels on October 10, 407.0 million barrels on October 3, and 383.9 million barrels on October 11, 2024, the report revealed.
Complete petroleum shares – together with crude oil, whole motor gasoline, gas ethanol, kerosene sort jet gas, distillate gas oil, residual gas oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.696 billion barrels on October 10, the report highlighted. Complete petroleum shares had been up 2.4 million barrels week on week and up 60.7 million barrels yr on yr, the report confirmed.
Frank Walbaum, a market analyst at Naga, outlined the crude stock construct of three.5 million barrels as “bigger than anticipated” in a market evaluation despatched to Rigzone on October 17.
In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report despatched to Rigzone by the SEB workforce on October 16, which targeted on the EIA’s newest weekly petroleum standing report on the time of writing, Ole R. Hvalbye, Commodities Analyst on the firm, highlighted that, “in whole, industrial petroleum inventories (excluding SPR) elevated by 1.7 million barrels on the week”.
“The construct was not as massive stock construct as API [American Petroleum Institute] indicated … [Wednesday] evening, however nonetheless up in whole (together with SPR) 2.4 million barrels vs regular decline of about 2.4 million barrels this time of yr,” he added.
In an oil and gasoline report despatched to Rigzone on October 13 by the Macquarie workforce, Macquarie strategists, together with Walt Chancellor, revealed that they had been forecasting that U.S. crude inventories can be up by 5.2 million barrels for the week ending October 10.
The EIA’s subsequent weekly petroleum standing report is scheduled to be launched on October 22. It should embrace knowledge for the week ending October 17.
In its weekly petroleum standing report, the EIA describes itself because the unbiased statistical and analytical company inside the Division of Power. Though the White Home web site highlights that the U.S. authorities is at present shut down, a banner seen on the EIA web site on Wednesday states that the EIA “is constant regular publication schedules and knowledge assortment till additional discover”.
To contact the creator, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
