The impression from Ukrainian drone strikes will suppress Russia’s refinery processing charges till at the very least mid-2026, the Worldwide Power Company says in its newest month-to-month oil-market report.
Kyiv has been intensifying assaults on its foe’s power infrastructure — together with oil refineries, pipelines and sea terminals — in a transfer to chop the Kremlin’s power income and cut back its capability to produce gasoline to the entrance strains.
For the reason that begin of August, Ukraine has launched at the very least 28 strikes on key Russian refineries — with the vary of the assaults growing — inflicting gasoline shortages in a number of areas, together with occupied Crimea. This has compelled the Kremlin to impose fuel-export restrictions till the tip of the yr.
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“Beforehand, we had assumed a normalization of refining exercise as we approached year-end however now embed a extra cautious outlook,” the Paris-based company stated in a report on Tuesday. The IEA presently sees Russian processing charges at slightly below 5 million barrels a day by June 2026, and a restoration towards 5.4 million barrels a day later, with the outlook to be revised as extra data turns into accessible.
“The more and more widespread and vital Ukrainian drone marketing campaign towards Russian oil refineries and infrastructure” has up to now minimize the nation’s crude processing by an estimated 500,000 barrels a day, the company stated.
The federal government in Moscow has labeled most power information, together with refinery runs and car-fuel manufacturing, which makes it troublesome to make a exact evaluation of the drone-related injury. Final week, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated the nation’s refiners have elevated their runs, balancing home gasoline demand and provide.
Decrease Income
With the drone strikes weighing on refinery runs, Russia raised its crude exports in September to five.1 million barrels a day, the very best since Might 2023, in keeping with the IEA. Nonetheless, the nation’s oil-export revenues declined to a three-month low of $13.4 billion, the company estimated.
The decline got here as Russia’s crude-supply revenues, which rose $200 million month-on-month, have been greater than offset by a $440 million drop for oil-product exports, the report stated. Based on the IEA calculations, Russian gasoline provides to different international locations in September reached 2.4 million barrels a day, the bottom in a decade, excluding April 2020 through the Covid-19 pandemic.
The drop in oil-export income is about to pressure Russia’s state coffers as Moscow continues to spend closely to finance the fourth yr of the struggle in Ukraine. The federal government already expects oil and fuel flows into the price range this yr to be the bottom because the pandemic.
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