In a report despatched to Rigzone by the Customary Chartered staff on Wednesday, Customary Chartered Financial institution Power Analysis Head Emily Ashford highlighted that OPEC+ “seems eager to take away the voluntary output cuts quickly”.
“The group meets just about on 5 October, amid ideas that unwinding could also be accelerated, growing the +137,000 barrels per day to +500,000 barrels per day for every of the following three months,” Ashford mentioned within the report.
“Whereas the ahead curve, market worth, balances and sentiment don’t recommend {that a} pivot in technique is required, OPEC+ seems eager to take away the voluntary output cuts quickly,” Ashford warned.
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Within the report, Ashford famous that “consensus expectation was for an additional 137,000 barrels per day improve in loadings (which tallies with a 12-month division of the April 2023 further voluntary output cuts), within the absence of any important sufficient adjustments within the ahead curve or market sentiment to regulate this schedule”.
Ashford additionally highlighted within the report, nevertheless, that “on 30 September, media stories that an accelerated program of unwinding may additionally be tabled (with the rest being divided into three month-to-month will increase of 500,000 barrels per day) prompted bearish worth reactions”.
“If this suggestion is ratified on the assembly, we’d count on the market to demand additional proof of steps being taken to fulfill over-production compensation cuts,” Ashford added.
Within the report, Ashford identified that Brent mix for November supply settled at $67.97 per barrel on September 29, which the Customary Chartered Financial institution consultant famous was every week on week rise of $1.40 per barrel “and simply $0.13 per barrel under our machine studying mannequin SCORPIO’s forecast of $68.10 per barrel set the earlier week”.
“Entrance-month Brent traded in a $4.66 per barrel intraday vary over the week, breaking above, after which again under a collection of key transferring averages, together with the 200-day, which now sits at $70.04 per barrel,” Ashford mentioned within the report, noting that there was a small uptick in volatility.
“30-day annualized Brent volatility elevated by 2.1 proportion factors week on week to 23.44 % on 29 September, a 19-day excessive,” Ashford added.
In a Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) report despatched to Rigzone by the SEB staff on Wednesday, SEB Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop mentioned OPEC+ “will possible unwind 500,000 barrels per day of voluntary quotas in October” however warned that “a full unwind of 1.5 million barrels per day in a single go could possibly be within the playing cards”.
“October 5 will present the way it performs out, however a quota unwind of not less than 500,000 barrels per day for October appears possible,” Schieldrop mentioned.
“Nevertheless it could possibly be the entire 1.513 million barrels per day in a single go,” he added.
Rigzone has contacted OPEC for touch upon the Customary Chartered and SEB stories. On the time of writing, OPEC has not responded to Rigzone.
Manufacturing Adjustment
A press release posted on OPEC’s web site on September 7 revealed that Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman “determined to implement a manufacturing adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day” at a digital assembly that day.
“The eight OPEC+ international locations, which beforehand introduced further voluntary changes in April and November 2023 … met just about on 7 September 2025 to overview world market circumstances and outlook,” the assertion famous.
“In view of a gentle world financial outlook and present wholesome market fundamentals, as mirrored within the low oil inventories, the eight taking part international locations determined to implement a manufacturing adjustment of 137,000 barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day further voluntary changes introduced in April 2023,” the assertion added.
This adjustment will probably be applied in October 2025, the assertion mentioned. A desk accompanying the assertion posted on OPEC’s web site outlined that Saudi Arabia and Russia’s adjustment quantities to 42,000 barrels per day, every. Iraq’s involves 17,000 barrels per day, the UAE’s is 12,000 barrels per day, Kuwait’s is 11,000 barrels per day, Kazakhstan’s is 6,000 barrels per day, Algeria’s is 4,000 barrels per day, and Oman’s is 3,000 barrels per day, the desk outlined.
The desk highlighted that October 2025 “required manufacturing” is 10.020 million barrels per day for Saudi Arabia, 9.491 million barrels per day for Russia, 4.237 million barrels per day for Iraq, 3.387 million barrels per day for the UAE, 2.559 million barrels per day for Kuwait, 1.556 million barrels per day for Kazakhstan, 963,000 barrels per day for Algeria, and 804,000 barrels per day for Oman.
“The 1.65 million barrels per day could also be returned partially or in full topic to evolving market circumstances and in a gradual method,” the assertion posted on OPEC’s web site famous.
“The international locations will proceed to carefully monitor and assess market circumstances, and of their steady efforts to help market stability, they reaffirmed the significance of adopting a cautious strategy and retaining full flexibility to pause or reverse the extra voluntary manufacturing changes, together with the beforehand applied voluntary changes of the two.2 million barrels per day introduced in November 2023,” it added.
“The eight OPEC+ international locations additionally famous that this measure will present a possibility for the taking part international locations to speed up their compensation,” it continued.
“The eight international locations reiterated their collective dedication to attain full conformity with the Declaration of Cooperation, together with the extra voluntary manufacturing changes that will probably be monitored by the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC),” the assertion went on to notice.
The international locations additionally “confirmed their intention to completely compensate for any overproduced quantity since January 2024”, in line with the assertion on OPEC’s web site, which mentioned the eight OPEC+ international locations will maintain month-to-month conferences to overview market circumstances, conformity, and compensation. The assertion revealed that the eight international locations will meet once more on October 5.
In a separate assertion posted on OPEC’s web site on September 8, the OPEC Secretariat mentioned it had obtained up to date compensation plans from Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Oman.
A desk accompanying this assertion revealed that these plans quantity to a complete of 235,000 barrels per day in October, 248,000 barrels per day in November, and 190,000 barrels per day in December. The plans quantity to a complete of 4.779 million barrels per day from August 2025 to June 2026, in line with the desk.
In one other assertion posted on OPEC’s web site on October 1, the OPEC Secretariat mentioned it had obtained up to date compensation plans from Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, and Oman.
A desk accompanying that assertion revealed that these plans quantity to a complete of 203,000 barrels per day in October, 266,000 barrels per day in November, and 303,000 barrels per day in December.
JMMC Assembly
A separate assertion posted on OPEC’s web site on October 1 famous that the 62nd Assembly of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) passed off by way of videoconference on that day.
“The JMMC reviewed the crude oil manufacturing knowledge for the months of July and August 2025 and famous the general conformity for OPEC and non-OPEC international locations taking part within the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC),” the assertion mentioned.
“The Committee reiterated the crucial significance of reaching full conformity and compensation, and reviewed the up to date compensation schedules,” it added.
“The Committee additionally reaffirmed that it’s going to proceed to observe adherence to the manufacturing changes determined upon on the thirty eighth OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Assembly (ONOMM) held on 5 December 2024, and the extra voluntary manufacturing changes introduced by some taking part OPEC and non-OPEC international locations as agreed upon within the 52nd JMMC held on 1 February 2024,” it continued.
The subsequent assembly of the JMMC is scheduled to be held on November 30, in line with this assertion.
To contact the creator, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
