In an oil and gasoline report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie group late Monday, Macquarie strategists, together with Walt Chancellor, revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories will probably be down by 1.9 million barrels for the week ending August 22.
“This follows a 6.0 million barrel draw within the prior week, with the crude stability once more realizing looser than our expectations,” the strategists mentioned within the report.
“We imagine persistently robust implied provide has been a key function of the U.S. crude oil stability throughout Q3 up to now,” they added.
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“For this week’s crude stability, from refineries, we mannequin a discount in crude runs (-0.3 million barrels per day). Amongst internet imports, we mannequin a slight enhance, with exports (-0.4 million barrels per day) and imports (-0.3 million barrels per day) decrease on a nominal foundation,” they continued.
The strategists warned within the report that timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility on this week’s crude stability.
“From implied home provide (prod.+adj.+transfers), we search for a rise (+0.3 million barrels per day) on a nominal foundation this week,” the strategists went on to state within the report.
“Rounding out the image, we anticipate a bigger enhance (+0.8 million barrels) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] shares this week,” they mentioned.
The strategists additionally said within the report that, “amongst merchandise”, they “search for one other construct in distillate (+1.0 million barrels) alongside one other attract gasoline (-2.1 million barrels), with jet shares practically flat (+0.1 million barrels)”.
“We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~14.7 million barrels per day for the week ending August 22,” the strategists went on to state within the report.
In its newest weekly petroleum standing report on the time of writing, which was launched on August 20 and included information for the week ending August 15, the U.S. Vitality Data Administration (EIA) highlighted that U.S. industrial crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, decreased by six million barrels from the week ending August 8 to the week ending August 15.
That EIA report confirmed that crude oil shares, not together with the SPR, stood at 420.7 million barrels on August 15, 426.7 million barrels on August 8, and 426.0 million barrels on August 16, 2024. Crude oil within the SPR stood at 403.4 million barrels on August 15, 403.2 million barrels on August 8, and 377.2 million barrels on August 16, 2024, the EIA report revealed.
“At 420.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about six p.c under the 5 12 months common for this time of 12 months,” the EIA mentioned in that report.
Complete petroleum shares – together with crude oil, complete motor gasoline, gasoline ethanol, kerosene sort jet gasoline, distillate gasoline oil, residual gasoline oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.666 billion barrels on August 15, the EIA report highlighted. Complete petroleum shares have been down 4.0 million barrels week on week and up 8.1 million barrels 12 months on 12 months, the EIA report confirmed.
In an oil and gasoline report despatched to Rigzone on August 18 by the Macquarie group, Macquarie strategists revealed that they have been forecasting that U.S. crude inventories could be down by 8.1 million barrels for the week ending August 15.
“This follows a 3.0 million barrel construct within the prior week, with the crude stability realizing modestly looser than our expectations,” the strategists mentioned in that report.
The EIA’s subsequent weekly petroleum standing report is scheduled to be launched on August 27. It would embrace information for the week ending August 22.
On its web site, the EIA states that it collects, analyzes, and disseminates unbiased and neutral power info to advertise sound policymaking, environment friendly markets, and public understanding of power and its interplay with the financial system and the atmosphere.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
