The U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) projected that world petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing will are available larger than consumption each this 12 months and subsequent 12 months in its newest quick time period power outlook (STEO), which was launched on August 12.
On this STEO, the EIA projected that world petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing will common 105.36 million barrels per day in 2025 and 106.35 million barrels per day in 2026. Crude oil makes up 78.34 million barrels per day of the 2025 determine and 78.82 million barrels per day of the 2026 determine, the STEO highlighted. Different liquids make up 27.01 million barrels per day of this 12 months’s whole world petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing determine and 27.53 million barrels per day of subsequent 12 months’s whole determine, the STEO identified.
The EIA projected that world petroleum and different liquid fuels consumption will common 103.72 million barrels per day this 12 months and 104.91 million barrels per day subsequent 12 months in its August STEO.
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This STEO highlighted that world petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing averaged 103.08 million barrels per day in 2024. It confirmed that world petroleum and different liquid fuels consumption averaged 102.74 million barrels per day final 12 months.
In its earlier STEO, which was launched in July, the EIA projected that world petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing would common 104.61 million barrels per day in 2025 and 105.72 million barrels per day in 2026.
That STEO forecast that crude oil would make up 77.66 million barrels per day of the overall 2025 world petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing determine and 78.19 million barrels per day of the overall 2026 determine. Different liquids have been projected to make up 26.95 million barrels per day of this 12 months’s whole world petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing determine and 27.54 million barrels per day of subsequent 12 months’s whole determine, that STEO identified.
In its July STEO, the EIA projected that world petroleum and different liquid fuels consumption would common 103.54 million barrels per day this 12 months and 104.59 million barrels per day subsequent 12 months.
“The Brent crude oil value in our forecast declines considerably within the coming months, falling from $71 per barrel in July to $58 per barrel on common within the fourth quarter of 2025 and round $50 per barrel in early 2026,” the EIA stated in its August STEO.
“The value forecast is pushed largely by extra oil stock builds following OPEC+ members’ choice to speed up the tempo of manufacturing will increase,” it added.
“We now anticipate international oil stock builds will common greater than two million barrels per day in 4Q25 and 1Q26, which is 0.8 million barrels per day greater than in final month’s STEO,” it continued.
“Low oil costs in early 2026 will result in a discount in provide by each OPEC+ and a few non-OPEC producers, which we anticipate will assist reasonable stock builds later in 2026. We forecast the Brent crude oil value will common $51 per barrel subsequent 12 months, down from our forecast of $58 per barrel in final month’s STEO,” the EIA went on to state in its newest STEO.
In its STEOs, the EIA highlighted that its world petroleum and different liquid fuels manufacturing figures embody crude oil, lease condensate, pure fuel plant liquids, different liquids, refinery processing achieve, and different unaccounted-for liquids. Variations within the reported historic manufacturing information throughout international locations might lead to some inconsistencies within the delineation between crude oil and different liquid fuels, the EIA famous in its STEOs.
The EIA additionally said in its STEOs that consumption of petroleum by the OECD international locations is similar as ‘petroleum product equipped’, outlined within the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Provide Month-to-month (DOE/EIA-0109). Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD international locations is ‘obvious consumption’, which incorporates inner consumption, refinery gas and loss, and bunkering, the EIA added in its STEOs.
To contact the writer, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
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