The U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) projected that the U.S. on-highway diesel gasoline worth will fall in 2025 and 2026 in its newest quick time period power outlook (STEO), which was launched on August 12.
On this STEO, the EIA forecast that the U.S. on-highway diesel gasoline worth will common $3.66 per gallon this yr and $3.47 per gallon subsequent yr. The EIA highlighted in its August STEO that the U.S. on-highway diesel gasoline worth averaged $3.76 per gallon in 2024.
The EIA’s August STEO confirmed that the EIA sees the U.S. on-highway diesel gasoline worth averaging $3.78 per gallon within the third quarter of 2025, $3.66 per gallon within the fourth quarter, $3.49 per gallon within the first quarter of subsequent yr, $3.36 per gallon within the second quarter, $3.47 per gallon within the third quarter, and $3.57 per gallon within the fourth quarter.
- Advertisement -
In its earlier STEO, which was launched in July, the EIA projected that the U.S. on-highway diesel gasoline worth would common $3.61 per gallon in 2025 and $3.59 per gallon in 2026. That STEO additionally highlighted that the U.S. on-highway diesel gasoline worth averaged $3.76 per gallon final yr.
The EIA’s July STEO forecast that the U.S. on-highway diesel gasoline worth would common $3.67 per gallon within the third quarter of 2025, $3.59 per gallon within the fourth quarter of this yr and first quarter of 2026, $3.56 per gallon within the second quarter, $3.58 per gallon within the third quarter, and $3.61 per gallon within the fourth quarter of subsequent yr.
“We forecast the U.S. retail diesel worth will common virtually $3.70 per gallon in 2025, down three p.c from 2024,” the EIA mentioned in its August STEO.
“Diesel costs in our forecast fall by one other 5 p.c in 2026,” the EIA added in its newest STEO.
Declining Worth Pattern
The EIA’s newest diesel gasoline replace, which was launched on August 19, confirmed a declining pattern for the U.S. on-highway diesel gasoline worth.
That replace confirmed that the U.S. on-highway diesel gasoline worth averaged $3.800 per gallon on August 4, $3.754 per gallon on August 11, and $3.713 per gallon on August 18.
Of the 5 Petroleum Administration for Protection District (PADD) areas highlighted within the EIA’s newest gasoline replace, the West Coast was proven to have the very best on-highway diesel gasoline worth as of August 18, at $4.455 per gallon. The Gulf Coast was proven within the replace to have the bottom on-highway diesel worth as of August 18, at $3.340 per gallon.
A glossary part of the EIA web site notes that the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia are divided into 5 districts, with PADD 1 additional cut up into three subdistricts. PADDs 6 and seven embody U.S. territories, the positioning provides.
The AAA Gas Costs web site exhibits that the typical U.S. diesel worth was $3.681 per gallon on August 25. Yesterday’s common was $3.686 per gallon, the week in the past common was $3.690 per gallon, the month in the past common was $3.741 per gallon, and the yr in the past common was $3.708 per gallon, the AAA Gas Costs web site confirmed.
In accordance with the positioning, the very best recorded common worth for U.S. diesel was seen on June 19, 2022, at $5.815 per gallon.
What Do You Pay For?
The EIA’s newest diesel gasoline replace, which pegged the retail worth of U.S. diesel at $3.60 per gallon in June, confirmed that crude oil prices made up 45 p.c of that worth, distribution and advertising prices made up 20 p.c, refining prices made up 19 p.c, and taxes made up 17 p.c.
An EIA diesel gasoline replace launched on Could 13, which pinned the retail worth of U.S. diesel at $3.59 per gallon in March 2025, confirmed that 46 p.c of that complete went in the direction of crude oil prices, 23 p.c went in the direction of distribution and advertising prices, 17 p.c went in the direction of taxes, and 15 p.c went in the direction of refining prices.
To contact the creator, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
