In an oil and gasoline report despatched to Rigzone late Monday by the Macquarie staff, Macquarie strategists revealed that they’re forecasting that U.S. crude inventories shall be down 8.1 million barrels for the week ending August 15.
“This follows a 3.0 million barrel construct within the prior week, with the crude stability realizing modestly looser than our expectations,” the strategists mentioned within the report.
“For this week’s crude stability, from refineries, we mannequin a slight discount in crude runs (-0.1 million barrels per day). Amongst internet imports, we mannequin a pointy discount, with exports larger (+1.1 million barrels per day) and imports decrease (-0.8 million barrels per day) on a nominal foundation,” they added.
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The Macquarie strategists warned within the report that timing of cargoes stays a supply of potential volatility on this week’s crude stability.
“From implied home provide (prod.+adj.+transfers), we search for a rise (+0.2 million barrels per day) on a nominal foundation this week,” the strategists mentioned within the report.
“Rounding out the image, we anticipate a small enhance (+0.2 million barrels) in SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] shares this week,” they added.
The Macquarie strategists went on to notice within the report that, “amongst merchandise”, they “search for builds in distillate (+2.9 million barrels) and jet (+0.2 million barrels), with a small attract gasoline (-0.3 million barrels)”.
“We mannequin implied demand for these three merchandise at ~14.3 million barrels per day for the week ending August 15,” the Macquarie strategists added within the report.
In its newest weekly petroleum standing report, which was launched on August 13 and included information for the week ending August 8, the EIA highlighted that U.S. industrial crude oil inventories, excluding these within the SPR, elevated by three million barrels from the week ending August 1 to the week ending August 8.
That EIA report confirmed that crude oil shares, not together with the SPR, stood at 426.7 million barrels on August 8, 423.7 million barrels on August 1, and 430.7 million barrels on August 9, 2024. Crude oil within the SPR stood at 403.2 million barrels on August 8, 403.0 million barrels on August 1, and 376.5 million barrels on August 9, 2024, the report revealed.
Complete petroleum shares – together with crude oil, whole motor gasoline, gas ethanol, kerosene sort jet gas, distillate gas oil, residual gas oil, propane/propylene, and different oils – stood at 1.670 billion barrels on August 8, the EIA report highlighted. Complete petroleum shares have been up 7.7 million barrels week on week and up 6.9 million barrels 12 months on 12 months, the report confirmed.
In an oil and gasoline report despatched to Rigzone by the Macquarie staff on August 11, Macquarie strategists, together with Walt Chancellor, revealed that they have been forecasting that U.S. crude inventories could be up by 2.0 million barrels for the week ending August 8.
“This follows a 3.0 million barrel draw within the prior week, with the crude stability realizing tighter than our expectations,” the strategists mentioned in that report.
In an oil report despatched to Rigzone by the Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) staff on August 15, which centered on the August 13 weekly petroleum standing report, Ole R. Hvalbye, a commodities analyst on the firm, highlighted that “whole industrial petroleum inventories (crude and merchandise mixed, excluding SPR) rose by 7.5 million barrels on the week, bringing whole shares to 1,267 million barrels”.
“Whereas inventories are bettering, they continue to be beneath historic norms – particularly in distillates, the place the market stays structurally tight,” Hvalbye mentioned in that report.
The EIA’s subsequent weekly petroleum standing report is scheduled to be launched on August 20. It should embody information for the week ending August 15.
To contact the creator, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
