International oil demand averaged 104.7 million barrels per day within the first 5 days of August.
That’s what analysts at J.P. Morgan, together with Natasha Kaneva, head of worldwide commodities technique on the firm, stated in a analysis word despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis group on August 6, including that this determine was under their estimate of 104.8 million barrels per day for the month.
The analysts said within the word that, yr so far by August 5, international oil demand development is monitoring a 0.92 million barrel per day growth in opposition to their estimates of 0.94 million barrels per day.
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“International oil demand by August 5 has averaged 104.7 million barrels per day, monitoring a 300,000 barrel per day yr over yr development, however 90,000 barrels per day under our forecast for the month,” the J.P. Morgan analysts highlighted within the word.
“For comparability, oil demand averaged 1.7 million barrels per day yr over yr development in August throughout 2015-2019,” they added.
“Regardless of a barely gentle begin to the month, relative to our expectations, excessive frequency indicators of oil demand counsel international oil consumption is probably going to enhance sequentially over the approaching weeks,” they continued.
The analysts went on to state within the word that jet gas and petrochemical feedstocks are anticipated to drive development in oil consumption however warned that development in demand for gasoline and diesel is more likely to stay sluggish.
“Within the first 5 days of August, international each day flights have elevated by 4.3 p.c in comparison with the identical interval final yr,” the J.P. Morgan analysts stated within the word.
“Concurrently, weekly air passenger throughput within the U.S. has risen for the fifth consecutive week ending on August 2 from year-ago ranges, based on the TSA,” they added.
“Moreover, naphtha imports into East Asia (Japan, Korea, and Taiwan) have surged, rising by 300,000 barrels per day from July’s low. In China, port cargo volumes grew by 5.4 p.c in July following a subdued June,” they continued.
Within the word, the J.P. Morgan analysts highlighted that, within the first week of August, seen OECD business oil inventories and Singapore shares reported a seven million barrel draw.
“Whereas crude oil inventories declined by 12 million barrels, oil product shares elevated by 5 million barrels,” they stated.
“Yr so far, these areas have reported a 42 million barrel rise in complete liquid shares, with crude oil rising by 31 million barrels and oil merchandise rising by 12 million barrels,” they added.
The analysts went on to state within the word that “Chinese language shares reported a two million barrel construct final week”.
“Chinese language crude oil shares elevated by 2.4 million barrels whereas oil product shares declined marginally by 300,000 barrels, their first decline after eight consecutive weeks of builds,” the analysts identified within the word.
“Yr so far, Chinese language crude oil shares have risen by 64 million barrels, whereas oil product shares stay unchanged,” they continued.
In a J.P. Morgan analysis word despatched to Rigzone on July 30 by the JPM Commodities Analysis group, analysts at J.P. Morgan stated, yr so far, international oil demand development was monitoring a 1.0 million barrel per day growth in opposition to their estimates of 1.06 million barrels per day.
“For the month of July, international oil demand has averaged 105.4 million barrels per day, above our estimate of 105.3 million barrels per day for the month,” the analysts stated in that word.
“Following a short slowdown final week, international oil demand surged within the closing week of July. This development was primarily pushed by elevated demand for gasoline and jet gas within the U.S., coupled with heightened commerce and port exercise in China,” they added.
“For July, international oil demand is projected to rise by 700,000 barrels per day yr over yr, barely surpassing our preliminary forecasts for the month,” they continued.
The J.P. Morgan analysts said in that word that “high-frequency indicators of oil demand proceed to sign sequential enchancment”.
“Within the U.S., weekly freight automotive visitors has reached a four-year seasonal excessive, whereas Germany’s truck toll index has grown in 5 of the final six weeks in comparison with the earlier yr,” they stated.
“China’s each day flights have hit a five-month peak, standing 12.6 p.c above 2019 ranges. Moreover, July noticed a 5 p.c enhance in cargo volumes from China in comparison with yr in the past ranges, marking the strongest development in three months,” they continued.
Additionally in that word, the analysts highlighted that, within the closing week of July, seen OECD business oil inventories and Singapore shares reported a 9 million barrel construct, which they famous was primarily pushed by an 11 million barrel enhance in crude oil inventories.
“All through the month, OECD and Singapore liquid shares expanded by 23 million barrels,” the analysts stated within the word.
“Yr so far, these areas have reported a 49 million barrel rise in complete liquid shares, with crude oil rising by 42 million barrels and oil merchandise rising by seven million barrels,” they added.
“Chinese language shares noticed a decline of 11 million barrels this week, led by a 12 million barrel drawdown in crude oil shares. In the meantime, Chinese language oil product shares marked their eighth consecutive weekly construct,” they continued.
“Yr so far, Chinese language crude oil shares have risen by 60 million barrels, whereas oil product shares stay unchanged,” the analysts went on to state.
To contact the writer, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
