The U.S. Vitality Info Administration (EIA) diminished its Henry Hub pure gasoline spot worth forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its newest brief time period power outlook (STEO), which was launched on July 8.
In keeping with that STEO, the EIA sees the Henry Hub pure gasoline spot worth averaging $3.67 per million British thermal items (MMBtu) in 2025 and $4.41 per MMBtu in 2026. The EIA’s earlier STEO, which was launched in June, projected that the Henry Hub pure gasoline spot worth would common $4.02 per MMBtu this yr and $4.88 per MMBtu subsequent yr.
Each STEOs highlighted that the Henry Hub pure gasoline spot worth got here in at $2.19 per MMBtu in 2024.
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In its newest STEO, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub pure gasoline spot worth will common $3.37 per MMBtu within the third quarter of this yr, $3.99 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $4.46 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2026, $3.76 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.35 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $5.06 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of subsequent yr.
The EIA’s earlier STEO noticed the Henry Hub pure gasoline spot worth coming in at $4.01 per MMBtu within the third quarter, $4.67 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $5.35 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2026, $4.39 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $4.87 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and 4.92 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of subsequent yr.
“In contrast with our June forecast, we anticipate extra pure gasoline in storage within the coming months due to barely extra pure gasoline manufacturing and fewer energy sector demand,” the EIA mentioned in its newest STEO.
“In consequence, we diminished our forecast for pure gasoline costs,” the EIA added.
In its STEO, the EIA famous that its forecast for extra pure gasoline in storage and decrease costs comes after seven consecutive weeks of web injections larger than 100 billion cubic ft contributed to a restoration in storage volumes.
“We estimate that U.S. pure gasoline inventories had been seven % above the five-year common (2020–2024) on the finish of June after ending the withdrawal season (November–March) 4 % beneath the five-year common, the bottom in three years,” the EIA mentioned in its July STEO.
“Injections have exceeded the five-year common as U.S. pure gasoline manufacturing has elevated within the 2Q25 in contrast with 1Q25. We anticipate inventories will finish the injection season on October 31 with 3,910 billion cubic ft of pure gasoline in storage, 5 % greater than we forecast in final month’s STEO and three % greater than the five-year common,” it added.
The EIA identified within the STEO that the Henry Hub spot worth averaged simply over $3.00 per MMBtu in June and highlighted that it expects the commodity will common “nearly $3.40 per MMBtu in 3Q25, 16 % lower than final month’s forecast”.
“LNG demand and pure gasoline manufacturing will probably be two key drivers of worth within the coming months,” the EIA added.
“If LNG demand is extra or manufacturing is lower than our forecast, inventories might finish the injection season beneath our forecast and pure gasoline costs could also be greater than forecast,” it continued.
“On the similar time, with above-normal hurricane exercise anticipated this summer time, LNG exports could also be disrupted if storms hit alongside the Gulf Coast, which might end in extra U.S. inventories and decrease pure gasoline costs than anticipated,” it went on to state.
The EIA famous in its July STEO that marketed pure gasoline manufacturing averaged 116.8 billion cubic ft per day (Bcfpd) in 2Q25, which it identified was a 4.7 Bcfpd improve in contrast with the identical interval in 2024.
“We anticipate manufacturing to stay close to this degree by way of 2026, averaging round 116 Bcfpd in each 2025 and 2026,” the EIA mentioned in its STEO.
“Larger pure gasoline costs all through 2025 in contrast with final yr have supported this sustained manufacturing. The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub spot worth averaged $3.67 per MMBtu in 1H25, in contrast with $2.11 per MMBtu in 1H24,” it added.
“Though manufacturing in our forecast stays comparatively flat going ahead, we forecast U.S. marketed pure gasoline manufacturing will improve nearly three % this yr in contrast with 2024, largely due to rising manufacturing within the first half of the yr,” it continued.
“This improve is pushed primarily by the Permian area, which we anticipate to provide 27.0 Bcfpd in 2025, or six % greater than in 2024, together with will increase within the Appalachia and Haynesville areas,” the EIA went on to state.
“We forecast U.S. marketed pure gasoline manufacturing will stay flat in 2026 as manufacturing progress from the Permian and Appalachia areas will offset the general decline in manufacturing from the remainder of the USA,” the EIA famous.
A analysis word despatched to Rigzone by the JPM Commodities Analysis group on July 14 confirmed that J.P. Morgan anticipated the Henry Hub U.S. pure gasoline worth to common $3.75 per MMBtu in 2025 and $3.31 per MMBtu in 2026.
That word revealed that J.P. Morgan noticed the commodity coming in at $4.00 per MMBtu within the third quarter of 2025, $3.75 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter, $3.50 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2026, $3.00 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.25 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $3.50 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
A report despatched to Rigzone by the Commonplace Chartered Financial institution group on July 8 confirmed that Commonplace Chartered anticipated the NYMEX Foundation Henry Hub U.S. pure gasoline close by future worth to common $3.35 per MMBtu this yr and $3.30 per MMBtu subsequent yr.
In that report, Commonplace Chartered projected that the commodity would common $3.20 per MMBtu within the final quarter of 2025 and first quarter of 2026, $3.70 per MMBtu within the second quarter of subsequent yr, $3.50 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $2.80 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
To contact the writer, e-mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
