The U.S. Power Info Administration (EIA) raised its U.S. crude oil manufacturing forecast for 2025 and 2026 in its newest brief time period power outlook (STEO), which was launched on February 11.
In keeping with that STEO, the EIA sees U.S. crude oil manufacturing, together with lease condensate, averaging 13.59 million barrels per day this yr and 13.73 million barrels per day subsequent yr. In its earlier STEO, which was launched in January, the EIA projected that U.S. crude oil output would common 13.55 million barrels per day in 2025 and 13.62 million barrels per day in 2026.
In its newest STEO, the EIA forecast that U.S. crude oil manufacturing will are available at 13.40 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2025, 13.57 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 13.65 million barrels per day within the third quarter, 13.74 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter, 13.77 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2026, 13.82 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 13.68 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 13.63 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter of subsequent yr.
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In its earlier STEO, the EIA noticed U.S. crude oil manufacturing averaging 13.41 million barrels per day within the first quarter of this yr, 13.54 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 13.56 million barrels per day within the third quarter, 13.67 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter, 13.63 million barrels per day within the first quarter of subsequent yr, 13.67 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 13.61 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 13.59 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter of 2026.
Each STEOs spotlight that U.S. crude oil manufacturing averaged 13.21 million barrels per day in 2024. A knowledge web page on the EIA web site displaying annual U.S. subject manufacturing of crude oil, which was final up to date on January 31, 2025, and which incorporates information from 1859 to 2023, confirmed that annual U.S. subject manufacturing of crude oil by no means averaged 13 million barrels per day or extra throughout this era. The closest it got here to an annual common of 13 million barrels per day was in 2023, at 12.935 million barrels per day, the information revealed.
A knowledge web page on the EIA web site displaying month-to-month U.S. subject manufacturing of crude oil, which was additionally final up to date on January 31, 2025, and which incorporates from January 1920 to November 2024, confirmed that month-to-month U.S. subject manufacturing of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day or extra on 15 events. 5 of these had been in 2023 and 10 had been in 2024, in response to the information web page, which revealed that the best month-to-month U.S. subject manufacturing of crude oil determine was seen in October 2024, at 13.436 million barrels per day.
International Crude Oil Manufacturing
In its newest STEO, the EIA projected that whole crude oil manufacturing will common 77.44 million barrels per day in 2025 and 78.39 million barrels per day in 2026.
The EIA’s February STEO sees whole crude oil manufacturing coming in at 76.81 million barrels per day within the first quarter of this yr, 76.99 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 77.69 million barrels per day within the third quarter, 78.25 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter, 78.38 million barrels per day within the first quarter of subsequent yr, 78.19 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 78.30 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 78.70 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter of 2026.
In its January STEO, the EIA forecast that whole crude oil manufacturing would common 76.80 million barrels per day within the first quarter of 2025, 76.92 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 77.59 million barrels per day within the third quarter, 78.19 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter, 78.26 million barrels per day within the first quarter of subsequent yr, 78.08 million barrels per day within the second quarter, 78.29 million barrels per day within the third quarter, and 78.72 million barrels per day within the fourth quarter of subsequent yr.
The EIAs February STEO highlighted that whole crude oil output got here in at 76.29 million barrels per day in 2024. The group’s January STEO highlighted that this manufacturing averaged 76.28 million barrels per day final yr.
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