The U.S. Power Data Administration (EIA) revealed its newest Henry Hub pure fuel worth forecasts for this 12 months and subsequent 12 months in its October brief time period vitality outlook (STEO), which was launched just lately.
In accordance with the STEO, the EIA sees the Henry Hub spot worth averaging $2.28 per million British thermal models (MMBtu) in 2024 and $3.06 per MMBtu in 2025. In its earlier STEO, which was launched in September, the EIA projected that the Henry Hub spot worth would common $2.19 per MMBtu this 12 months and $3.14 per MMBtu subsequent 12 months.
The EIA’s October STEO positioned the Henry Hub spot worth common at $2.81 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of 2024, $3.16 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025, $2.59 per MMBtu within the second quarter of 2025, $3.13 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $3.35 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
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The group’s September STEO put the Henry Hub spot worth common at $2.52 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of this 12 months, $3.01 per MMBtu within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, $2.90 per MMBtu within the second quarter of 2025, $3.28 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $3.36 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of subsequent 12 months.
In its October STEO, the EIA positioned the 2023 Henry Hub spot worth common at $2.54 per MMBtu.
“Pure fuel costs rose in September as pure fuel manufacturing fell barely from August,” the EIA mentioned in its newest STEO.
“The U.S. benchmark Henry Hub worth averaged $2.28 per MMBtu in September, 15 p.c larger than the August common of $1.98 per MMBtu. The decline in manufacturing was partly as a consequence of an 11 p.c drop in in Gulf of Mexico (GOM) pure fuel manufacturing,” it added.
“About 53 p.c of GOM manufacturing capability was taken offline due to Hurricane Francine, which made landfall on the Louisiana coast on September 11,” it continued.
“GOM manufacturing capability was unable to return to full capability as a result of Class 4 Hurricane Helene went via a close-by space two weeks later, extensively disrupting vitality programs,” the EIA went on to state.
In its October STEO, the EIA famous that it expects costs to rise in 2025 as LNG exports improve whereas home consumption and manufacturing stay comparatively flat.
“We forecast U.S. consumption of pure fuel to common 89 billion cubic ft per day in 2025, which is about the identical as our forecast for consumption in 2024,” it added.
“Nonetheless, we count on that LNG exports will rise by almost two billion cubic ft per day subsequent 12 months with continued robust worldwide demand as export capability expands,” it mentioned.
In a press release posted on its web site on September 10, the Bureau of Security and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) revealed that it had activated its hurricane response staff in response to Francine. In a press release posted on its web site on September 24, the BSEE revealed that it had activated its hurricane response staff in response to Helene.
A report despatched to Rigzone by Customary Chartered Commodities Analysis Head Paul Horsnell final Tuesday confirmed that the corporate was forecasting that the NYMEX foundation Henry Hub U.S. pure fuel worth will common $2.70 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of this 12 months, $3.20 per MMBtu within the first quarter of subsequent 12 months, $3.50 per MMBtu within the second quarter and third quarter, and $2.80 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of subsequent 12 months.
A analysis notice despatched to Rigzone on September 30 by the JPM Commodities Analysis staff confirmed that J.P. Morgan noticed the U.S. pure fuel Henry Hub worth averaging $2.33 per MMBtu in 2024 and $3.70 per MMBtu in 2025.
That notice revealed that the corporate noticed the commodity averaging $2.75 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter of 2024, $3.75 per MMBtu within the first quarter of 2025, $3.30 per MMBtu within the second quarter, $3.75 per MMBtu within the third quarter, and $4.00 per MMBtu within the fourth quarter.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
