A brand new Bloomberg Intelligence (BI) report despatched to Rigzone lately revealed that 45 p.c of 176 respondents to BI’s September oil survey “anticipate a Donald Trump presidency to be bearish for oil costs in 2025”.
“Simply 18 p.c assume… that for Vice President Kamala Harris,” the report highlighted.
“This will mirror Trump’s possible push for extra drilling and dislike of strict oil and fuel rules, mixed with a possible OPEC+ response to loosen output cuts,” it added.
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BI’s survey exhibits 58 p.c of respondents assume a Harris presidency would don’t have any impact on oil costs subsequent yr vs 32 p.c if Trump was in energy once more, the report famous.
“OPEC+ would most likely open the faucets quicker and convey additional provide to the market if Trump turns into president, primarily based on the views of 36 p.c of the 176 respondents to our most up-to-date BI survey, suggesting a decrease oil value and an easing of the inflation burden,” the BI report said.
“That compares with simply 11 p.c pondering a Harris presidency would most likely encourage OPEC+ to extend provide. Likewise, if Harris turns into U.S. president, 62 p.c of individuals we surveyed see no knee-jerk change in OPEC+ coverage, and 46 p.c if Trump does,” it added.
The report confirmed that 70 p.c of respondents to the BI survey see no significant impression on U.S. oil and fuel manufacturing below a Harris presidency and 57 p.c see no significant impression on U.S. oil and fuel manufacturing below a Trump presidency.
It highlighted that 39 p.c of respondents anticipate Trump to meaningfully enhance manufacturing and 4 p.c anticipate Harris to meaningfully enhance output.
“Vice President Kamala Harris is talking about extra oil and fuel leases from the Inflation Discount Act and has additionally reversed her prior opposition to fracking,” the report mentioned.
“Harris nonetheless seems extra prone to prohibit LNG exports in comparison with Donald Trump, who typically opposes strict rules on the oil and fuel sector,” it added.
Shale Oil Impression
In a launch despatched to Rigzone on Wednesday by the Rystad Vitality group, Rystad revealed that, in response to new evaluation by the corporate, the U.S. shale oil trade “is unlikely to be considerably impacted” by the end result of the U.S. election.
“Regardless of the rhetoric and coverage platforms from the 2 candidates, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, the tight oil sector is predicted to proceed its regular progress, pushed extra by market forces and firm technique than by authorities coverage,” Rystad mentioned within the launch.
“The trade’s concentrate on profitability and shareholder returns, relatively than chasing manufacturing progress, signifies that operators are unlikely to be influenced by guarantees of assist or potential rules from both candidate,” it added.
Rystad said within the launch that this shift in technique, which it has dubbed ‘Shale 4.0’, has been materializing for a while.
“It’s a vital departure from the trade’s progress in any respect prices method within the early days of the shale revolution, which was fueled by quick access to capital and a concentrate on fast manufacturing growth,” Rystad mentioned within the launch.
“Nevertheless, monetary limitations and growing strain from traders to prioritize returns have led to a extra disciplined method to progress,” it added.
Shale manufacturing progress within the U.S. might be pushed by a mixture of things, in response to the discharge. This contains rising oil costs, enhancing operator effectivity, and growing long-term funding from acquisitions, the discharge highlighted.
“Whereas the trade could face challenges within the coming years, together with growing competitors from renewable vitality sources and rising considerations about local weather change, the short-term outlook for shale stays optimistic,” Rystad famous.
Matthew Bernstein, a Senior Analyst of Upstream Analysis at Rystad Vitality, mentioned within the launch, “the U.S. onshore trade has discovered to dwell with a excessive diploma of uncertainty, and the presidential election is only one of many components on operators’ radars”.
“Shale manufacturing has confirmed to be extremely resilient, and we anticipate it to proceed to play a serious function within the world vitality panorama for years to come back. On the finish of the day, the trade is pushed by market fundamentals, not by politics,” he added.
Make or Break
In a press release posted on the Quinnipiac College Ballot web site on October 1, Quinnipiac College Polling Analyst Tim Malloy mentioned, “all eyes are on the South as Georgia and North Carolina, turbocharged by 32 electoral votes between them, could make or break the 2 candidates in a race that appears to be leaning Trump’s approach in Georgia for the time being and churning towards a decent end in North Carolina”.
“On points, because the presidential horse race thunders towards November fifth, Harris confronts a troubling Trump trifecta: he leads her on the economic system and immigration and has the sting on the subject of who would finest deal with a nationwide disaster,” Malloy added.
Rigzone has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for touch upon the BI report, Rystad launch, and Quinnipiac College Ballot assertion. On the time of writing, not one of the campaigns have responded to Rigzone but.
The U.S. election is scheduled to be held on November 5. Trump served as U.S. President from January 20, 2017, to January 20, 2021. Joe Biden has served because the U.S. President from January 20, 2021.
To contact the writer, e mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
