The oil market in 2026 is not going to be about Venezuela however about OPEC+ reducing or not.
That’s what Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB) Chief Commodities Analyst Bjarne Schieldrop acknowledged in an oil market report despatched to Rigzone by the SEB workforce on Monday.
“The worldwide oil market in 2026 is not going to be about Venezuela,” Schieldrop stated.
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“It is going to be about OPEC+ balancing act between oil worth and market share. Making cuts or not,” he added.
“The IEA [International Energy Agency] projected in December that the world will solely want 25.6 million barrels per day from OPEC in 2026 versus a manufacturing in November of 29.1 million barrels per day. If the IEA is appropriate then … OPEC might want to minimize manufacturing by 3.5 million barrels per day to maintain the oil market balanced,” he continued.
“OPEC+ confirmed this weekend that it’s going to preserve manufacturing unchanged in Q1-26. The consequence is that the oil worth is heading decrease by the week. We anticipate OPEC+ to shift from ‘maintain’ to ‘minimize’ as Brent crude strikes to the low $50ies,” Schieldrop went on to state.
An announcement posted on OPEC’s web site on January 4 revealed that, in a gathering held on Sunday, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman “reaffirmed their determination on 2 November 2025 to pause manufacturing increments in February and March 2026 resulting from seasonality”.
Within the SEB report, Schieldrop highlighted that Venezuela shouldn’t be an enormous oil producer at present, noting that the nation produced 960,000 barrels per day in November.
“On the similar time, it consumes some 400,000 barrels per day with internet to the world exports of solely 560,000 barrels per day. Provide danger to the worldwide oil market is thus very restricted because it stands at present,” he stated.
Schieldrop identified within the report that Venezuela produced nearer to 2.4 million barrels per day in 2015 however stated “years of corruption, plus U.S. sanctions, has eroded manufacturing capability”.
“Its oil infrastructure is worn down. Engineers who may get jobs in different nations have left,” he added.
Schieldrop went on to state that “what makes everybody raise their eyebrows over Venezuela with respect to grease is that it has the world’s largest oil reserves”.
“The concept is that U.S. capital coupled with Venezuelan oil reserves may result in a serious upturn in oil manufacturing. However it would require billions and billions of {dollars} and likewise time to drive manufacturing larger,” he stated.
“China has poured billions into infrastructure in Venezuela with most of it misplaced resulting from corruption. … It is probably not all that protected for U.S. oil majors to pour billions in capex into Venezuela,” he continued.
“Impressions from newest headlines is that U.S. cash is already knocking on the door in Venezuela, however it’s too early to say whether or not such a dollar-flow will actually materialize in the long run or not,” he famous.
In an announcement despatched to Rigzone by the Sparta Commodities workforce on Monday, Hoa Nguyen, who leads the event of Sparta’s forward-looking instruments for gasoline oil and feedstocks, highlighted that “there’s an enormous distinction between possible vs recoverable reserves, the latter of which additionally massively relies on costs”.
“Venz grades are among the heaviest crudes that exist in important… portions on the earth. And also you want some 10-15 p.c diluents to even get it out in pipelines,” Nguyen stated.
“The price of taking no matter is pretty accessible is already excessive. The price of accessing the much less recoverable stuff? Astronomical,” Nguyen added.
“If I had been an American main, I might discover it very exhausting to justify, on purely financial grounds, drilling extra when flat worth is a really thrilling $60 a barrel,” Ngyuen continued.
“That’s not even counting the billions that can be wanted to revamp the prevailing decrepit infrastructure to provide, retailer, and transport it,” the Sparta Commodities consultant went on to state.
Within the report, Ngyuen famous that “it is going to be a protracted highway earlier than they [Venezuela] will hit three million barrels per day once more, if ever”.
“Having stated that, from a technical standpoint, ramping as much as 1.5 million barrels per day appears fairly attainable to do in only a 12 months or so, and at pretty affordable prices. And that’s why it’s necessary to account for the state of affairs of 500,000 barrels per day further showing by the top of This fall,” Ngyuen stated.
Rigzone contacted the Consular Part of Venezuela in the UK and Eire, the White Home, and the American Petroleum Institute (API) for touch upon Schieldrop and Ngyuen’s statements. Rigzone has additionally contacted the Worldwide Press Middle of China’s Ministry of Overseas Affairs and OPEC for touch upon Schieldrop’s statements.
In response, White Home Spokeswoman Taylor Rogers instructed Rigzone, “all of our oil corporations are prepared and prepared to make large investments in Venezuela that can rebuild their oil infrastructure, which was destroyed by the illegitimate Maduro regime”.
“American oil corporations will do an unbelievable job for the folks of Venezuela and can characterize the US nicely,” Rogers added.
Rigzone understands U.S. Power Secretary Chris Wright, alongside U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, can be main this effort on behalf of U.S. President Donald Trump. Rigzone additionally understands correspondence with the businesses has already begun.
On the time of writing, the Consular Part of Venezuela in the UK and Eire, the API, the Worldwide Press Middle of China’s Ministry of Overseas Affairs, and OPEC haven’t responded to Rigzone.
Rigzone has additionally contacted the API and the Consular Part of Venezuela in the UK and Eire for touch upon Rogers’ assertion. On the time of writing, neither have responded to this Rigzone request for remark both.
A web page on Venezuela on the U.S. Power Data Administration’s (EIA) web site, which was final up to date in February 2024, acknowledged that Venezuela had the world’s largest confirmed crude oil reserves in 2023, “with roughly 303 billion barrels”. The web page famous that this accounted for about 17 p.c of world reserves.
“Regardless of the sizeable reserves, Venezuela produced 0.8 p.c of complete international crude oil in 2023,” the EIA web page highlighted.
To contact the creator, electronic mail andreas.exarheas@rigzone.com
